History (1989): WW Shipments of Optical Disk Drives for Computer Grew 187% in 1988

WW shipments of optical disk drives for computer applications grew 187% in 1988 and are expected to be up another 105% in 1989, according to a recently released report ($1,220) by Disk/Trend (Mountain View, CA) on optical disk drives.

CD-ROM drive shipments are forecasted to top one million units in 1992, and erasable optical disk drive shipments in the same year expected to exceed 750,000 units.

1992 WW revenue total for all optical disk drives is expected to be $2 billion.

Here are the other highlights from the report:

• 232,800 CD-ROM drives were shipped in 1988, more than double than the previous year’s shipments, but low average prices held revenues to only $95 million. Continually expanding publishing activity for specialized databases for both public sale and controlled distribution is the backbone of CD-ROM growth, but 1988 saw the start of significant usage with personal computers intended primarily for games, especially in Japan.
• 97% of 1988’s shipments of read-write optical drives with less than 1GB capacity were 5.25-inch models, but 3.5-inch drives are expected to provide almost 20% of the 1992 total. 83% of the 1988 group total were write-once types. But erasable drive shipments started in 1988, and by 1992 they are expected to dominate, with 86% of WW shipments.
• Despite rapid growth for erasable optical drives, they are not expected to provide serious competition for rigid disk drives through 1992, due to lower performance and higher cost, although improvements in critical components and higher production volumes will probably eliminate these competitive deficiencies in subsequent years. All erasable optical drives now available use magneto-optical technology, but rewritable. Phase change drives may be introduced as early as next year.
• Drive manufacturers headquartered in USA accounted for less than 3% of 1988 WW shipments, but they are expected to claim 22% of 1992 shipments. US firms will probably not have a role in the CD-ROM drive market, but are expected to be more active in developing the market for erasable drives.
• The WW optical disk drive industry now consists of 35 drive manufacturers, with a total of 117 drive models in their current product lines.

This article is an abstract of news published on the former paper version of Computer Data Storage Newsletter on issue ≠19/20, published on August/September 1989.