SSD Shipments Surpassing 11 Million Units in 2009

Despite the economic recession and constrained IT spending, 2009 was a good year for solid state drive (SSD) vendors, with SSD shipments surpassing 11 million units, an increase of 14% year over year. Looking forward, IDC expects SSD adoption will continue to experience tangible growth in 2010 and beyond, with shipments expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 54% over the 2008-2013 forecast period.

"Despite lingering uncertainties around the economy, IDC remains positive on the outlook for SSDs and believes the trajectories for shipment and revenue growth are a source of optimism moving forward," said Jeff Janukowicz, research manager, Hard Disk Drive Components and Solid State Drives at IDC.

Key IDC findings from this market outlook include:

• Pricing remains a key metric for SSD adoption in all market segments. The slowdown in IT spending over the past 18 months has led to production cutbacks in NAND semiconductors, subsequently slowing overall SSD price reductions. However, the long term decline in the cost of NAND memory will translate into lower price points for SSDs. These lower price points, coupled with increased SSD capacities, will make them a compelling alternative to hard disk drives (HDDs) in certain market segment.
• IDC believes that the largest market opportunity for SSDs will be in PCs, where there are two avenues to adoption. One is as an alternative to an HDD in a traditional notebook where the user is willing to pay a premium for the anticipated performance benefits of an SSD. The second avenue lies in offering a low-cost storage alternative for use in mininotebooks. In both cases, SSD price points and storage capacities must be competitive with HDD costs before broader adoption will occur.
• In the enterprise, IDC believes that SSDs complement HDDs for certain applications. The desire for increased performance, better utilization, faster access times, and lower power consumption is providing an increasing opportunity for SSD-based solutions in the datacenter where there is a premium on high performance.

"SSD adoption will continue to experience tangible growth given the nascent stage for SSD adoption coupled with many of the benefits inherent in SSDs," added Janukowicz. "We expect SSD vendors to achieve capacity and price points that make SSDs an attractive solution in the PC and enterprise markets where the value proposition of SSDs is compelling."

This IDC report, Worldwide 2009-2013 Solid State Drive Forecast Update (IDC #221415), updates IDC’s worldwide SSD forecast for PC, commercial, and enterprise applications. The SSD industry dynamics associated with the first half of 2009 and end device forecast changes are aggregated, analyzed, and applied to IDC’s long-term SSD forecast in terms of units and revenue (by form factor) for each consumption category of SSDs.