Weak Demand Outlook and Rising Inventory and Supply Pressure DRAM Prices Down for 2025

This market report was written by TrendForce Corp. and published on November 18, 2024.

The fourth quarter is a critical period for setting DRAM contract prices. TrendForce’s latest research reveals that prices for mature DRAM processes such as DDR4 and LPDDR4X are already trending downward due to ample supply and declining demand.

The demand outlook for advanced products like DDR5 and LPDDR5X remains uncertain, and with high inventory levels among certain buyers and sellers, a further drop in prices by the end of Q4 cannot be ruled out.

Avril Wu, TrendForce SVP of research, explained that the company had a more optimistic outlook on DRAM prices in 2025, driven by aggressive HBM capacity expansion by the top 3 suppliers, with new facilities expected to commence full production by 2026. 

However, rapid changes in market dynamics have led TrendForce to revise its forecast, shifting from an anticipated price increase to a projected decline, with the first half of 2025 expected to see a particularly pronounced drop. In this trend, DDR4 and LPDDR4X are likely to face more significant downward pressure than DDR5 and LPDDR5X.

On the supply side, the weakening NAND flash market, which currently offers lower profitability than DRAM, is expected to prompt some production lines to switch from NAND to DRAM. Additionally, while HBM3e 12hi is anticipated to quickly become mainstream for AI applications in 2025, not all suppliers may secure NVIDIA certification on time, increasing the likelihood that TSV capacity could be redirected to conventional DRAM production.

Wu also highlighted that rapid capacity expansion by Chinese suppliers has positioned them as the largest source of DRAM production outside the top three global suppliers. Additionally, ongoing weakness in consumer electronics demand is expected to further impact DRAM pricing in 2025. If manufacturers are unable to effectively manage production levels, inventory clearance across the industry will likely slow down considerably.